With tensions in Gaza running high, concerns of a potential conflict between Egypt and Israel are escalating. A sense of unease has spread among Egyptians, many of whom are alarmed by the devastation in Gaza and Lebanon. Conversations increasingly turn to the question of whether war is imminent, fueled by economic hardships and the diplomatic fallout over a controversial proposal to forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt.
Speculation about military conflict has been amplified by media reports and social media exchanges between Egyptians and Israelis. An Israeli website recently published an AI-generated scenario depicting an attack on Egypt’s High Dam, while an Egyptian YouTuber countered with a simulated strike on Israel’s nuclear reactor. Online rhetoric has escalated, with accusations and threats exchanged on various platforms, while television debates analyze the likelihood of war.
Reports in the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth suggest that misleading information, particularly from right-wing media, is contributing to the growing fears. The publication refuted claims of an Egyptian military buildup near the Israeli border, dismissing them as unverified. Amos Harel, a defense analyst at Haaretz, noted that while the origins of these rumors remain unclear, Israel’s far-right may be exploiting them to distract from internal criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Amid the uncertainty, Netanyahu faces pressure from families of hostages held in Gaza, who accuse him of stalling a deal for their release to appease hardliners. Egypt, alongside other mediators, is working to maintain a fragile ceasefire that has been in place since January but remains on shaky ground. A key issue is whether Egypt has exceeded the military deployment limits set by the 1979 peace treaty with Israel.
Brokered by the United States, the treaty ended decades of hostilities and imposed restrictions on Egypt’s military presence in the Sinai Peninsula. Despite longstanding security cooperation, questions have arisen over Egypt’s recent activities in the region. In 2016, Egypt received Israeli approval to increase its forces in Sinai to combat ISIS. Last year, Egypt reinforced its border with Gaza, claiming that the measures remained within the scope of prior agreements.
Egyptian military exercises, including live-ammunition drills and a parade attended by President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, have been interpreted by some as potential war preparations. Israeli officials have expressed concerns, with Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter alleging that Egypt has violated the peace treaty by building military bases suited for offensive operations. Meanwhile, Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the UN, has questioned Egypt’s large-scale military expenditures, warning that Israel must remain vigilant.
Despite these concerns, military analysts dismiss claims of Egyptian troop movements in Sinai, asserting that no Egyptian tank can enter the region without Israel’s consent. Hossam el-Hamalawy, an Egyptian security analyst, argued that Egypt lacks the military capability for a direct confrontation with Israel, adding that much of the media footage of Egyptian deployments is either outdated or filmed elsewhere.
Egypt’s military establishment has also downplayed the speculation. Maj. Gen. Ahmad Mahmoud Safi El-Din emphasized in a recent interview that Egypt’s defense investments are intended to maintain regional stability. Similarly, outgoing Israeli military chief Herzi Halevi stated that while there is no immediate threat, circumstances could change rapidly.
Amid conflicting narratives, influential media figures have taken center stage in shaping public perception. Egyptian talk show host Amr Adib reassured viewers that war is not imminent, while acknowledging the fluidity of the situation. He noted that both Egypt and Israel have occasionally breached the peace treaty but insisted that outright conflict would only occur if one side launched an attack.
Beyond military concerns, the broader implications of US foreign policy have heightened tensions. Former Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy warned that efforts to forcibly relocate Gazans into Egypt could jeopardize the peace treaty, calling it a national security threat. In May, Egypt cautioned that any such displacement would turn Sinai into a battleground, effectively drawing Egypt into the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Trump’s proposal to resettle Palestinians in Egypt and Jordan while transforming Gaza into a tourism hub has reinforced Egyptian anxieties. While Israelis largely dismissed the plan, Egyptians took it seriously, fearing pressure from Washington to comply. Analysts suggest that Egypt’s strong reaction aimed to signal that any attempt to alter Gaza’s demographics could put the peace treaty at risk.
As Arab leaders prepare to meet in Cairo to formulate a response, uncertainty looms over the future of the treaty. Some experts believe the growing media frenzy over a potential war may be exaggerated, yet they acknowledge that recent developments have placed unprecedented strain on the agreement.
For 45 years, the Egypt-Israel peace treaty has served as a pillar of regional stability. However, with the current political climate, security analysts warn that it may now be facing its most significant test yet.