Ukraine and the United States are on the brink of finalizing a groundbreaking agreement that will grant Washington access to Ukraine’s vast mineral resources. This agreement, which has been in the works for months, is seen as a significant geopolitical and economic move, with implications that stretch far beyond trade. The deal comes at a crucial time for Ukraine, as it continues to seek international support in its fight against Russian aggression. President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump are set to meet in Washington on Friday to sign the preliminary agreement, marking a new chapter in the U.S.-Ukraine partnership.
The discussions surrounding this deal first emerged last September when then-presidential candidate Donald Trump met Zelensky in New York. It was during this meeting that the idea of leveraging Ukraine’s rich mineral resources to strengthen economic and political ties with the United States was introduced. Since then, negotiations have taken place at various levels between officials from both nations, with the primary goal of creating a mutually beneficial arrangement. The deal is expected to allow American companies access to Ukraine’s deposits of rare earth minerals, which are crucial for manufacturing advanced technologies such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, and military equipment.
While the agreement represents a major economic opportunity for Ukraine, it has also sparked concerns regarding security assurances from the United States. President Zelensky has been pushing for a more concrete commitment from Washington regarding Ukraine’s long-term security. However, President Trump has made it clear that he believes Europe should take on a greater responsibility for Kyiv’s defense. Trump has argued that the United States has already provided substantial financial and military aid to Ukraine and that any future support should come with tangible benefits for the American economy. He has repeatedly emphasized that the U.S. should be able to "get its money back" from the billions spent on military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine since the start of the war.
The preliminary agreement reportedly includes the creation of a joint investment fund that will be used for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. Under the terms discussed, Ukraine is expected to contribute a percentage of its future revenues from mineral extraction to the fund, while the U.S. will provide additional investments. This fund is seen as a way to ensure that Ukraine’s natural resources contribute to rebuilding the country rather than simply being extracted for foreign profit. The arrangement is designed to be an equal partnership, with both nations having an equal say in how the fund is managed. However, some reports suggest that the United States may hold the maximum ownership share permitted under U.S. law.
Despite the economic potential of the deal, negotiations have not been without controversy. One of the biggest sticking points has been the scope of U.S. involvement in Ukraine’s natural resource sector. Some Ukrainian lawmakers have expressed concerns that granting too much control to American companies could limit Ukraine’s ability to benefit fully from its own mineral wealth. There have also been reports that an earlier version of the agreement included a U.S. request for $500 billion worth of mineral resources, a demand that Ukraine reportedly rejected. Although that request has since been dropped, there are still ongoing discussions regarding the exact terms of U.S. access to Ukrainian resources.
Another major challenge facing the agreement is the issue of security guarantees. Zelensky has made it clear that he wants a formal security commitment from the United States as part of the deal. Without such a guarantee, he has warned that Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting the war and securing a long-term ceasefire could be at risk. However, Trump has been reluctant to make any binding commitments, instead suggesting that the presence of American workers and businesses in Ukraine could serve as an "automatic security measure." This stance has been met with skepticism, as it does not provide the same level of reassurance as a formal defense agreement.
The strategic importance of Ukraine’s mineral resources cannot be overstated. The country is home to some of the largest known deposits of rare earth elements, titanium, lithium, and graphite. These materials are essential for industries ranging from renewable energy to defense. Graphite, for example, is a key component in electric vehicle batteries, while titanium is widely used in aerospace and military applications. With global demand for these materials rising, securing access to Ukraine’s reserves would be a significant win for the United States, which has been seeking to reduce its reliance on China for critical minerals.
However, not all of Ukraine’s mineral wealth is currently under its control. A significant portion of the country’s deposits, particularly in the eastern regions, has been seized by Russia since the start of the war. According to Ukrainian officials, an estimated $350 billion worth of mineral resources remains in Russian-occupied territories. This has made the issue of securing Ukraine’s remaining resources even more urgent, as the country looks for ways to generate revenue and sustain its economy amid the ongoing conflict.
The presence of landmines and unexploded ordnance across large swathes of Ukraine also poses a serious challenge to any mining operations. Experts estimate that roughly a quarter of Ukraine’s landmass is contaminated with landmines, particularly in regions that have seen heavy fighting. This will likely complicate efforts to extract and process minerals, requiring significant investment in demining operations before large-scale resource extraction can begin.
The geopolitical implications of this deal have also drawn reactions from Russia. While the Kremlin has not directly commented on the agreement, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that Russia has its own plans to collaborate with foreign partners on mineral extraction projects. He suggested that Russia’s "new territories" in eastern Ukraine—areas that Moscow has annexed—contain significant resources that could be exploited in joint ventures with other nations. This statement indicates that Russia is closely monitoring Ukraine’s efforts to align itself more closely with the United States in the resource sector.
Meanwhile, European leaders are watching the developments with caution. Some analysts have suggested that the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal could shift the balance of power in global supply chains, potentially reducing Europe’s access to Ukrainian resources. Given the European Union’s own interest in securing a stable supply of critical minerals, there is speculation that Brussels may seek to negotiate a separate agreement with Kyiv to ensure its own industries are not left at a disadvantage.
As the finalization of the agreement approaches, questions remain about the long-term impact of the deal on Ukraine’s sovereignty, economy, and security. While the prospect of increased investment and financial stability is promising, the lack of firm security guarantees and the potential risks associated with foreign control over key resources continue to generate debate. The outcome of Friday’s meeting between Zelensky and Trump will be closely watched, as it could determine the future of U.S.-Ukraine relations and shape the geopolitical landscape for years to come.