South Africa’s relationship with the United States is facing a new level of uncertainty following President Donald Trump’s recent decision to suspend financial aid to the country. His move, which has sent ripples through diplomatic circles, comes in response to South Africa’s land expropriation policy and its decision to file a genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Trump’s decision has raised concerns that he may also target South Africa’s preferential trade benefits under the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). The agreement, which has significantly boosted South Africa’s exports to the US, is up for review later this year. Experts worry that Trump may use it as leverage to pressure South Africa into policy changes.
Since the end of apartheid in 1994, the US and South Africa have generally maintained stable diplomatic ties. However, tensions have flared at various points, particularly around trade and policy decisions. Notably, it took the US until 2008 to remove Nelson Mandela from its terrorist watch list, despite his global reputation as a freedom fighter.
The latest friction follows President Cyril Ramaphosa’s signing of the Expropriation Bill, which allows the government to seize land without compensation under certain conditions. Trump strongly condemned the law, describing it as “unjust” and accusing South Africa’s leadership of “terrible things.” He further alleged, without evidence, that the government was “confiscating land” and engaging in actions that were “perhaps far worse.”
Following this, Trump signed an executive order freezing nearly $440 million in aid. However, the US embassy later clarified that funding for PEPFAR, the American initiative supporting HIV/AIDS treatment, would continue, though not all related programs would resume.
Trump’s stance has been welcomed by conservative Afrikaner groups such as AfriForum and Solidarity, which advocate for the rollback of race-based policies, including affirmative action. Adding weight to this sentiment, South African-born billionaire Elon Musk echoed Trump’s concerns, questioning on social media why the country had “openly racist ownership laws.”
This is not the first time Trump has criticized South Africa’s land policies. During his first term in 2018, he alleged that there was “large-scale killing of farmers” and instructed his administration to investigate reports of land seizures targeting white landowners. While those claims were widely debunked, the recent aid freeze marks an unprecedented level of action against South Africa.
The US remains a major trading partner for South Africa, importing critical minerals such as platinum, iron, and manganese. In 2023, South Africa generated $2.7 billion in revenue under AGOA, primarily from vehicle exports, jewelry, and metals.
Trade expert Donald MacKay from XA Global Trade Advisors suggests that while the US is a key market, it is not South Africa’s closest trading partner. He notes that diplomatic tensions have been growing over the years and believes that Trump’s latest move is an attempt to “put South Africa in its place.”
With AGOA up for renewal, MacKay doubts South Africa will continue benefiting from the trade agreement. “Whatever the reason Trump is upset with South Africa, AGOA is the easiest tool to use as punishment,” he explains. Political analyst Dr. Oscar van Heerden adds that even if South Africa were excluded from AGOA, its businesses would likely recover within a few years.
The South African government is taking a diplomatic approach, though success seems uncertain given Trump’s confrontational stance. Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola dismissed Trump’s demands, stating that there was “no chance” South Africa would withdraw its ICJ case against Israel.
"Standing by our principles sometimes has consequences, but we remain firm that this is important for the world and the rule of law," Lamola said.
Meanwhile, President Ramaphosa, as G20 chair, has announced a global diplomatic initiative to clarify South Africa’s domestic and foreign policies, with Washington being a key stop. However, in a clear snub, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has refused to attend a G20 ministerial meeting in Johannesburg, stating, “My job is to advance America’s national interests, not waste taxpayer money or coddle anti-Americanism.”
As a member of BRICS—an alliance including Brazil, Russia, India, and China—South Africa has been aligning itself with alternative economic and political partners. Analysts suggest this shift may accelerate as tensions with the US grow.Despite the strained US-South Africa relations, the European Union has reaffirmed its commitment to working with South Africa. European Council President António Costa recently assured Ramaphosa of the EU’s support in strengthening bilateral ties.
With the geopolitical landscape shifting, South Africa faces critical decisions on how to navigate its economic and diplomatic future. Dr. Van Heerden warns that the country must tread carefully, as Trump has already made his opening move in what could become a high-stakes political chess game.